tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post1009891461098925588..comments2024-02-01T04:37:41.878-05:00Comments on Cap'n Transit Rides Again: Buses or trains on the Northeast Corridor?Cap'n Transithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17057887736728828646noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-81806633271489909112012-10-04T00:00:49.130-04:002012-10-04T00:00:49.130-04:00One substitute for more Hudson tunnels would be mo...One substitute for more Hudson tunnels would be more NJ train service to Hoboken and much, much more ferry service to Manhattan, but you'd have to beef up west-side subway service too, so....neroden@gmailhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07475686367097445497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-50246118146917800572012-10-03T23:53:30.824-04:002012-10-03T23:53:30.824-04:00"Which is likely to get more people out of th..."Which is likely to get more people out of their cars, improving signaling and increasing train length, or increasing the number of buses?"<br /><br />New Hudson River Train Tunnels.<br /><br />The buses are basically stuck at the Hudson River; there are only two tunnels and one bridge, and even if you kicked all the cars out of the Hudson River crossings, it wouldn't help much -- they're massively congested just with buses. I did this trip last week.<br /><br />PATH is at capacity in its four tubes. Amtrak/NJT are at capacity in their two tubes. The ferries are too slow and really can only serve people living near the New Jersey waterfront.<br /><br />So, more Hudson tunnels.<br /><br />After that, the next priority is efficient use of Penn Station. Through-running would get a *hell* of a lot more trains through there.neroden@gmailhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07475686367097445497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-88482794741740244972012-09-30T12:55:06.501-04:002012-09-30T12:55:06.501-04:00I’m late to this, but it’s worth noting that MegaB...I’m late to this, but it’s worth noting that MegaBus tried competing in the Chicago-Milwaukee market and was all but crowded out by the Hiawatha (a friend intended to take Megabus from Cleveland to Milwaukee with a transfer in Chicago, but MegaBus frequency was so poor he ended up taking Hiawatha instead for the Chicago-Milwaukee leg instead).<br /><br />(This is Beta Magellan, my wordpress account’s giving me trouble for some reason.)Eschatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13058240936938216836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-26872495107608917542012-09-29T02:57:15.380-04:002012-09-29T02:57:15.380-04:00Mexico doesn't have intercity passenger trains...Mexico doesn't have intercity passenger trains. I can't tell whether Brazil doesn't have any the way Mexico doesn't or doesn't have any reasonable ones the way Canada doesn't.<br /><br />And of course, the US doesn't have much of an intercity rail network, either. It's formally legal to run trains, but not in any cost-effective manner.<br /><br />The reason I bring up South Korea is that it has both an extensive express bus network and an extensive intercity rail network. Add up this and the pitiful mode share of Northeastern express buses and what you get is that Megabus is like American commuter rail - nobody likes riding it, and when alternatives exist, people take the alternatives.Alonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17267294744186811858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-76562578797519279832012-09-28T22:57:50.010-04:002012-09-28T22:57:50.010-04:00Alon: Look at markets like Mexico and Brazil which...Alon: Look at markets like Mexico and Brazil which have extensive bus networks. <br /><br />And indeed international buses in europe arent regulated.<br /><br />And ridership is about to skyrocket<br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/9208649/Megabus-launches-1-service-to-Europe.htmlJames Sinclairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00948509061118072998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-46674601154907364502012-09-28T20:34:54.961-04:002012-09-28T20:34:54.961-04:00James: South Korea. Also, international buses in E...James: South Korea. Also, international buses in Europe aren't as regulated.Alonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17267294744186811858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-74536014200390111012012-09-27T00:49:43.544-04:002012-09-27T00:49:43.544-04:00Alon, I don't think it's accurate to say t...Alon, I don't think it's accurate to say that from Boston to Jersey is a nightmare, since during rush hours Peter Pan goes <i>through</i> Fort Lee to get to Hartford from the Port Authority.Cap'n Transithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17057887736728828646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-76017423831568558942012-09-26T23:54:51.792-04:002012-09-26T23:54:51.792-04:00@Alon ....obviously France doesnt have intercity ...@Alon ....obviously France doesnt have intercity buses....theyre not allowed to run between cities where trains run! Same in Germany. terrible example.<br /><br /><br />Ive been following the intercity buses since they began to emerge as a popular thing in 2006. the ridership gains have been outstanding. <br /><br />I rode Megabus just this week and wasnt even able to get on the real bus....it was sold out, so they had a coach usa bus leave at the same time to fit in another 40 passengers. <br /><br /><br />One huge way to increase demand is to speed the buses up...they spent an hour crawling through Manhattan <br />James Sinclairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00948509061118072998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-74538228649775027162012-09-26T23:48:07.138-04:002012-09-26T23:48:07.138-04:00Cap'n: Isn't that assuming that demand is ...Cap'n: Isn't that assuming that demand is already being met by current supply? It's entirely believable to me that Amtrak is charging less than market rates for their Acela service, given that they do so pretty much everywhere else. Acela just happens to be popular enough that it actually earns enough to meet its operating expenses.<br /><br />That said, even if fares go down this should encourage more ridership away from cars and planes as it becomes more affordable and (hopefully) more convenient thanks to increased seat availability. Or, stated another way, less trains unavailable because they're already full. And I think it's fair to assume that even with increased capacity and ridership the total profits earned by Acela would increase if they added more train cars.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15484716519978799780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-81859167076721061002012-09-26T23:46:37.700-04:002012-09-26T23:46:37.700-04:00@ant6n:
I'm implicitly assuming a distributio...@ant6n:<br /><br />I'm implicitly assuming a distribution of New York-area stops that includes a variety of major destinations and origin clusters: Midtown, Chinatown, Fort Lee, Newark, White Plains, and so on. The problem with this is that whatever you do, the buses slow down dramatically once they need to use city streets. The more distributed the destinations are, the worse this problem is. Want to travel from the south to Flushing? Enjoy your hour-long slog through Manhattan and western Queens traffic. Really, any destination in Brooklyn, Queens, and Long Island is a nightmare. From Boston, Jersey is also a nightmare.<br /><br />Don't undersell trains' advantage of being able to make a city stop and continue, without losing too much time or capacity.Alonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17267294744186811858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-6362834412483105772012-09-26T23:25:27.211-04:002012-09-26T23:25:27.211-04:00Queenstransit: great map! Looking forward to the ...Queenstransit: great map! Looking forward to the version with dollar and Chinatown vans. I agree with Ant6n, and will address your point in a future post.<br /><br />Shane, in theory if you provide more seats and the demand stays constant, the price per seat will go down. But the demand may well rise to meet the supply, especially if Christie runs out of political will to expand the Turnpike or gas prices go up.Cap'n Transithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17057887736728828646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-15766866099012533962012-09-26T21:13:05.911-04:002012-09-26T21:13:05.911-04:00Is this an issue of adding extra trains for the NE...Is this an issue of adding extra trains for the NEC regional Amtrak trains, Acela, or both? In the chart found on my own post (http://betterinstitutions.blogspot.com/2012/09/why-would-we-want-to-privatize-one.html) we can see that the regional trains earn an operating profit of about $3.76 per rider, whereas on Acela they earn $56.78 per rider.<br /><br />So if it's Acela, the issue of adding more trains seems straightforward. Basically, pump all the capital-dedicated money into Acela trains and you should have the money paid back pretty quickly: a capacity/ridership increase of 20% gets you an extra 700,000 riders a year, which yields you $40 million. That strikes me as enough to pay for a lot of trains, especially since you probably wouldn't be expected to pay the full cost of all the extra trains in the first year. And if Amtrak can't convince any government entity to pay for it, this sounds like a great investment for a private lender since it's pretty much a sure thing to make money.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15484716519978799780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-26458589580200421832012-09-26T16:55:47.363-04:002012-09-26T16:55:47.363-04:00@ant6n: The problem with that is that Manhattan is...@ant6n: The problem with that is that Manhattan is the only place in the metro region with easy, convenient access to everywhere else in the Tri-State area. The outer boroughs have very poor transit connections to each other, not everyone can afford to drive or get a taxi to their final destination, and to get to Queens and Brooklyn it's easier(and cheaper) to drive through Manhattan. Ending in New Jersey would require a transfer for most passengers to PATH and then the subway, and Westchester, Nassau, and Connecticut are simply out of the question.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-74862679326023926002012-09-26T09:47:48.388-04:002012-09-26T09:47:48.388-04:00@Alon
What if you don't assume all buses start...@Alon<br />What if you don't assume all buses start/stop in Manhattan? You could spread a large set of stations all over the metropolitan region; which would not be unreasonable if you assume the travel volumes cap'n would like to see.ant6nhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04845727393148967959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-36951579853668139022012-09-26T04:26:32.234-04:002012-09-26T04:26:32.234-04:00I may write a full post about this, but the crib n...I may write a full post about this, but the crib notes are that buses don't have the capacity to handle this demand. The intercity expressways do, but once you leave the expressway and make stops, you need enormous space for parking buses, like at Port Authority. The express bus companies can get away with curbside pickups because their traffic volumes aren't all that great. And the higher the volume, the more buses need to venture on city streets to find appropriate pickup and dropoff locations, which means more getting stuck in never-going-away city traffic.<br /><br />Forget about it. France and Japan don't have very developed networks of intercity buses, but South Korea does, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:KTX-Gyeongbu-modal-share.gif" rel="nofollow">their mode share isn't that great</a>.Alonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17267294744186811858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5862444008740250372.post-71917734756154794012012-09-26T01:00:15.539-04:002012-09-26T01:00:15.539-04:00A little off topic, but one thing to remember when...A little off topic, but one thing to remember when talking about the tunnels is that the dead end tracks at PSNY are another constraint on capacity, because at some point you have to try to get NJT trains back out of those tracks, and they have to cross opposing traffic at A interlocking.snowcrazyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00652385721256774677noreply@blogger.com